15 games · times in Phoenix · generated 2026-08-16 19:14 UTC
Side is the only validated column. Total* and NRFI* are not — see the notes at the bottom.
Probabilities: calibrated on 2,039 games from the prior year.
API 16,235 of 20,000 credits (81%) · as of 4h ago · nrfi · resets in 16 days · no burn rate yet (daily spend changed sharply this month — a typical day cost 5 and the most recent full day cost 64) — so no projection to reset
2026 backtest at real prices: -6.1% ROI over 1,443 games. The loss was statistically indistinguishable from paying the vig with zero skill (residual -2.1%, z=-0.90).
| n | record | hit % | 95% CI | units | b/e | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| all | 77 | 43-34 | 55.8% | 44.7% – 66.4% | +4.5 | 55.1% |
| HIGH | 4 | 2-2 | too few | -0.9 | 62.4% | |
| MEDIUM | 27 | 17-10 | too few | +1.8 | 55.3% | |
| LOW | 46 | 24-22 | 52.2% | 38.1% – 65.9% | +3.6 | 54.0% |
Never added to the live rows above, and never to each other. RECONSTRUCTED is 2026 rebuilt after the fact — an upper bound, not a record. Backtest is the era the features were designed against.
| n | record | hit % | 95% CI | units | b/e | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RECONSTRUCTED · all | 1445 | 758-687 | 52.5% | 49.9% – 55.0% | -99.3 | 56.5% |
| backtest · all | 7205 | 4014-3191 | 55.7% | 54.6% – 56.9% | -293.8 | 58.3% |
Bands were measured on 8,272 out-of-sample games and did not separate. HIGH hit 52.23% with a 95% CI of [49.72%, 54.73%] — an interval that contains 50% and overlaps LOW. The bands do not even order: MEDIUM 53.07% sits above HIGH 52.23%. Incremental R-squared over the posted line is +0.0022. Calibrated but uninformative.
| n | record | hit % | 95% CI | units | b/e | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| all | 37 | 15-22 | 40.5% | 26.3% – 56.5% | -8.5 | 52.6% |
| strong | 4 | 1-3 | too few | -2.1 | 53.8% | |
| mid | 9 | 3-6 | too few | -3.5 | 53.5% | |
| weak | 24 | 11-13 | too few | -2.9 | 52.0% |
Never added to the live rows above, and never to each other. RECONSTRUCTED is 2026 rebuilt after the fact — an upper bound, not a record. Backtest is the era the features were designed against.
| n | record | hit % | 95% CI | units | b/e | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RECONSTRUCTED · all | 1377 | 703-674 | 51.1% | 48.4% – 53.7% | -41.4 | 52.5% |
| backtest · all | 6895 | 3546-3349 | 51.4% | 50.2% – 52.6% | -250.0 | 53.4% |
40 totals picks (2026-08-10 to 2026-08-12) can never be settled: they were published before the ledger recorded the posted line, and that line is not recoverable after the fact. They are not back-filled. Totals published from now on carry their line and settle normally.
No historical NRFI price was ever collected, so hit-rate-against-break-even and Brier-against-market are UNCOMPUTABLE for any past game — uncomputable, not merely poor. That is the whole reason this column is ungraded, and it is a purchase decision: a season of first-inning history costs about 17,210 credits against a 20,000/month plan, and has not been judged worth it. The market itself is live and obtainable. Measured 2026-08-13 across the three events on the feed carrying any first-inning market, DraftKings quoted the 0.5 line on 3 of 3 — Over 0.5 -125 / Under 0.5 +100 and similar — under the market key 'alternate_totals_1st_1_innings'. Fanatics carried the same key on 3 of 3 but only at 1.5, which is a different bet. Earlier wording here said no price existed at either book; that was an artefact of asking for the wrong market key, not a fact about the board.
| n | record | hit % | 95% CI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| all | 77 | 48-29 | 62.3% | 51.2% – 72.3% |
| strong | 21 | 13-8 | too few | |
| mid | 31 | 21-10 | 67.7% | 50.1% – 81.4% |
| weak | 25 | 14-11 | too few |
Never added to the live rows above, and never to each other. RECONSTRUCTED is 2026 rebuilt after the fact — an upper bound, not a record. Backtest is the era the features were designed against.
| n | record | hit % | 95% CI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RECONSTRUCTED · all | 1445 | 768-677 | 53.1% | 50.6% – 55.7% |
| backtest · all | 7201 | 3712-3489 | 51.5% | 50.4% – 52.7% |
These three are never added together. Only LIVE is evidence.
LIVE — Read from data/live/published_picks.csv, which is written at publish time and refuses any pick for a game that has already started. It is the only source that can support a forward claim.
RECONSTRUCTED — 2026 walk-forward output. Those picks came from a model fit on a different fold than the card uses, and every design choice in the pipeline was made with these results already visible. Treat as an upper bound, never as evidence.
backtest — 2021-2025 walk-forward. The model never saw these rows, but the feature pipeline was built while looking at this era.
Side is the only column checked against real results — and it came out in the right order.
Total and NRFI have not been checked. The model has an opinion; nobody has verified it.
HIGH / MED / LOW on Side were measured against what actually happened.
weak / mid / strong on Total and NRFI are only how sure the model feels. Untested.
Different words on purpose, so one can never be read as the other.
Tested on 1,443 real 2026 games at real prices, this lost 6.1%.
That is what paying the bookmaker’s cut (the “vig”) costs you, with no skill at all.
Nothing here has been shown to make money.
TOTAL* — tested and FAILED. Bands were measured on 8,272 out-of-sample games and did not separate. HIGH hit 52.23% with a 95% CI of [49.72%, 54.73%] — an interval that contains 50% and overlaps LOW. Incremental R² over the posted line is +0.0022. Calibrated but uninformative. The 2026 backfill added ~2,200 priced games and the verdict did not move.
NRFI* — UNGRADED, never tested at all. No historical NRFI price exists anywhere, so hit-rate-against-break-even and Brier-against-market are uncomputable, not merely poor. No break-even is shown because there is no price.
weak / mid / strong is model conviction, NOT validation. It is which third of the claim-strength distribution the number falls in, and has not been shown to predict anything. A “strong” total is not a HIGH side.
SIDE re-measured on 8,650 games: HIGH 60.01% [57.60%, 62.43%], MEDIUM 56.93% [55.05%, 58.81%], LOW 51.97% [50.49%, 53.45%]. The ordering holds, but HIGH and MEDIUM now overlap — on the earlier 6,367-game window they did not. HIGH beats MEDIUM on the point estimate and is not proven distinct from it; MEDIUM over LOW is still clean. Only side HIGH is shaded. Break-even is shown beside every priced pick and never filters — every game gets an output, there is no “no bet”.
When Total* is empty there are two reasons. Either no posted total exists, in which case the model has nothing to read P(over) off and the blank is a missing input; or a line exists but the game is inside the 21-day sealed window that is deliberately not graded. Since the archive backfill posted lines for 2,299 games of the 2026 season, the second is the usual reason on the newest slate.
Probabilities are recalibrated against the trailing year. The raw model runs overconfident on recent data — reliability 0.0006 on 2022–2025 against 0.0043 on 2026, always the same direction. The correction is a Platt map fitted strictly earlier than the slate it is applied to, and it is monotone, so band ordering is untouched: only the numbers move. On 2026 it cuts reliability to 0.0026 and closes the HIGH band’s stated-minus-actual gap from +0.0298 to +0.0012. It does not fully fix the drift.
Three markets, never pooled — different base rates, different validation status, different meanings. There is deliberately no combined number anywhere below. Backtest and live are never added together either.
2021–2025. The model never saw these games, but the features were designed while looking at this era.
| strength | games | hit rate | 95% CI | model claimed | off by | units | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 1,390 | 60.7% | 58.1% – 63.3% | 62.4% | +1.7 pts | -54.2 | -3.9% |
| MEDIUM | 2,278 | 56.6% | 54.5% – 58.6% | 58.0% | +1.4 pts | -96.2 | -4.2% |
| LOW | 3,537 | 53.2% | 51.5% – 54.8% | 53.7% | +0.5 pts | -143.4 | -4.1% |
Each row is a group of games the model felt similarly about. If it is calibrated, the two middle columns match.
| when the model said… | games | it claimed | …this happened | off by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.6%-44.2% | 901 | 39.5% | 44.2% | -4.6 pts |
| 44.2%-48.1% | 900 | 46.3% | 46.1% | +0.2 pts |
| 48.1%-50.8% | 901 | 49.5% | 52.6% | -3.1 pts |
| 50.8%-53.3% | 900 | 52.1% | 51.0% | +1.1 pts |
| 53.3%-55.6% | 901 | 54.4% | 54.4% | +0.0 pts |
| 55.6%-58.2% | 900 | 56.8% | 56.7% | +0.2 pts |
| 58.2%-61.8% | 901 | 59.8% | 58.9% | +0.9 pts |
| 61.8%-80.9% | 901 | 65.8% | 62.5% | +3.3 pts |
| strength | games | hit rate | 95% CI | model claimed | off by | units | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| strong | 2,299 | 54.1% | 52.1% – 56.1% | 61.9% | +7.8 pts | +25.9 | 1.1% |
| mid | 2,298 | 51.0% | 49.0% – 53.0% | 55.3% | +4.3 pts | -100.7 | -4.4% |
| weak | 2,298 | 49.2% | 47.1% – 51.2% | 51.7% | +2.5 pts | -175.2 | -7.6% |
Each row is a group of games the model felt similarly about. If it is calibrated, the two middle columns match.
| when the model said… | games | it claimed | …this happened | off by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4%-38.5% | 862 | 34.6% | 46.1% | -11.5 pts |
| 38.5%-42.1% | 862 | 40.5% | 46.5% | -6.1 pts |
| 42.1%-44.7% | 862 | 43.5% | 46.6% | -3.2 pts |
| 44.7%-47.0% | 861 | 45.9% | 49.7% | -3.8 pts |
| 47.0%-49.3% | 862 | 48.1% | 50.8% | -2.7 pts |
| 49.3%-52.0% | 862 | 50.6% | 49.2% | +1.4 pts |
| 52.0%-55.3% | 862 | 53.5% | 48.4% | +5.1 pts |
| 55.3%-80.1% | 862 | 58.8% | 53.5% | +5.3 pts |
| strength | games | hit rate | 95% CI | model claimed | off by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| strong | 2,401 | 52.4% | 50.4% – 54.4% | 57.1% | +4.7 pts |
| mid | 2,400 | 50.9% | 48.9% – 52.9% | 53.2% | +2.3 pts |
| weak | 2,400 | 51.3% | 49.3% – 53.3% | 51.0% | -0.3 pts |
2026, rebuilt afterwards. These picks were never published — an upper bound, never evidence.
| strength | games | hit rate | 95% CI | model claimed | off by | units | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 267 | 52.8% | 46.8% – 58.7% | 61.5% | +8.7 pts | -33.4 | -12.5% |
| MEDIUM | 494 | 59.3% | 54.9% – 63.6% | 58.4% | -1.0 pts | +15.4 | 3.1% |
| LOW | 684 | 47.4% | 43.7% – 51.1% | 53.3% | +5.9 pts | -81.3 | -11.9% |
Each row is a group of games the model felt similarly about. If it is calibrated, the two middle columns match.
| when the model said… | games | it claimed | …this happened | off by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.7%-46.0% | 181 | 41.3% | 48.6% | -7.3 pts |
| 46.0%-49.7% | 180 | 48.0% | 51.7% | -3.6 pts |
| 49.7%-52.1% | 181 | 51.0% | 43.6% | +7.4 pts |
| 52.1%-54.3% | 180 | 53.2% | 47.2% | +6.0 pts |
| 54.3%-56.2% | 181 | 55.3% | 48.6% | +6.6 pts |
| 56.3%-58.5% | 180 | 57.3% | 57.8% | -0.5 pts |
| 58.6%-61.6% | 181 | 60.0% | 56.9% | +3.1 pts |
| 61.6%-77.3% | 181 | 64.7% | 63.0% | +1.7 pts |
| strength | games | hit rate | 95% CI | model claimed | off by | units | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| strong | 459 | 48.6% | 44.0% – 53.1% | 61.5% | +12.9 pts | -36.2 | -7.9% |
| mid | 459 | 52.9% | 48.4% – 57.5% | 55.0% | +2.1 pts | +1.4 | 0.3% |
| weak | 459 | 51.6% | 47.1% – 56.2% | 51.6% | -0.0 pts | -6.6 | -1.4% |
Each row is a group of games the model felt similarly about. If it is calibrated, the two middle columns match.
| when the model said… | games | it claimed | …this happened | off by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3%-39.5% | 172 | 34.4% | 52.3% | -17.9 pts |
| 39.5%-42.2% | 172 | 40.9% | 51.7% | -10.8 pts |
| 42.2%-44.6% | 172 | 43.5% | 45.3% | -1.8 pts |
| 44.6%-46.6% | 172 | 45.6% | 51.2% | -5.5 pts |
| 46.7%-48.8% | 172 | 47.7% | 50.0% | -2.3 pts |
| 48.8%-51.3% | 172 | 50.1% | 50.6% | -0.5 pts |
| 51.3%-54.1% | 172 | 52.6% | 51.7% | +0.9 pts |
| 54.1%-67.7% | 173 | 57.4% | 52.6% | +4.8 pts |
| strength | games | hit rate | 95% CI | model claimed | off by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| strong | 482 | 55.2% | 50.7% – 59.6% | 59.1% | +3.9 pts |
| mid | 481 | 53.0% | 48.5% – 57.4% | 54.0% | +1.0 pts |
| weak | 482 | 51.2% | 46.8% – 55.7% | 51.2% | -0.1 pts |
====================================================================================================
TRACKING — THREE SEPARATE LEDGERS
====================================================================================================
These three markets are NEVER pooled. Different base rates, different
validation status, different meanings. There is no combined record
anywhere in this report, by design.
Live begins 2026-01-01 (first scheduled 15:30 UTC run). Backtest and live are never summed.
####################################################################################################
# BACKTEST
# 2021-2025 walk-forward. The model never saw these rows, but the
# feature pipeline was designed while looking at this era.
####################################################################################################
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MONEYLINE — VALIDATED, but the claim has weakened. Re-measured on
8,650 games: HIGH 60.01% / MEDIUM 56.93% / LOW 51.97%.
Ordering holds; HIGH and MEDIUM intervals now OVERLAP
([57.60%,62.43%] vs [55.05%,58.81%]), where the earlier
6,367-game window showed none. MEDIUM > LOW is clean.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
hit rate by band, with 95% CI, stated vs actual, and units.
n = all graded games (hit rate, calibration).
n_priced = the subset with a real price (units, ROI). The 2026
archive backfill priced 2,299 of the 2,301 games that had none,
so n_priced now nearly equals n; the two games still missing
start before the snapshot that was bought.
group n hit_rate ci_lo ci_hi ci_width stated stated_minus_actual units roi n_priced
HIGH 1390 60.7% 58.1% 63.3% 5.1% 62.4% +1.7 pts -54.16 -3.9% 1389
MEDIUM 2278 56.6% 54.5% 58.6% 4.1% 58.0% +1.4 pts -96.22 -4.2% 2276
LOW 3537 53.2% 51.5% 54.8% 3.3% 53.7% +0.5 pts -143.44 -4.1% 3527
calibration by probability bucket:
bucket n stated actual gap ci_lo ci_hi
13.6%-44.2% 901 39.5% 44.2% -4.6 pts 41.0% 47.4%
44.2%-48.1% 900 46.3% 46.1% +0.2 pts 42.9% 49.4%
48.1%-50.8% 901 49.5% 52.6% -3.1 pts 49.3% 55.9%
50.8%-53.3% 900 52.1% 51.0% +1.1 pts 47.7% 54.3%
53.3%-55.6% 901 54.4% 54.4% +0.0 pts 51.1% 57.6%
55.6%-58.2% 900 56.8% 56.7% +0.2 pts 53.4% 59.9%
58.2%-61.8% 901 59.8% 58.9% +0.9 pts 55.7% 62.1%
61.8%-80.9% 901 65.8% 62.5% +3.3 pts 59.3% 65.6%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTALS* — BANDS WERE TESTED AND FAILED.
HIGH hit 52.23%, 95% CI [49.72%, 54.73%] — an interval that
CONTAINS 50% and overlaps LOW. Incremental R^2 over the
posted line is +0.0022. weak/mid/strong below is CLAIM
STRENGTH ONLY, not a validated band.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
group n hit_rate ci_lo ci_hi ci_width stated stated_minus_actual units roi n_priced
strong 2299 54.1% 52.1% 56.1% 4.1% 61.9% +7.8 pts 25.90 1.1% 2299
mid 2298 51.0% 49.0% 53.0% 4.1% 55.3% +4.3 pts -100.74 -4.4% 2298
weak 2298 49.2% 47.1% 51.2% 4.1% 51.7% +2.5 pts -175.21 -7.6% 2298
calibration by probability bucket:
bucket n stated actual gap ci_lo ci_hi
6.4%-38.5% 862 34.6% 46.1% -11.5 pts 42.8% 49.4%
38.5%-42.1% 862 40.5% 46.5% -6.1 pts 43.2% 49.9%
42.1%-44.7% 862 43.5% 46.6% -3.2 pts 43.3% 50.0%
44.7%-47.0% 861 45.9% 49.7% -3.8 pts 46.4% 53.0%
47.0%-49.3% 862 48.1% 50.8% -2.7 pts 47.5% 54.1%
49.3%-52.0% 862 50.6% 49.2% +1.4 pts 45.9% 52.5%
52.0%-55.3% 862 53.5% 48.4% +5.1 pts 45.1% 51.7%
55.3%-80.1% 862 58.8% 53.5% +5.3 pts 50.1% 56.8%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NRFI* — UNGRADED. No historical price is HELD for this market, so
break-even, units and market comparison are UNCOMPUTABLE,
not merely absent. Hit rate only.
(A season of history is purchasable at ~17,210 credits and
has not been bought. The LIVE market is obtainable:
DraftKings quoted the 0.5 line on 3 of the 3 events
carrying it on 2026-08-13, under the market key
alternate_totals_1st_1_innings.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
group n hit_rate ci_lo ci_hi ci_width stated stated_minus_actual
strong 2401 52.4% 50.4% 54.4% 4.0% 57.1% +4.7 pts
mid 2400 50.9% 48.9% 52.9% 4.0% 53.2% +2.3 pts
weak 2400 51.3% 49.3% 53.3% 4.0% 51.0% -0.3 pts
####################################################################################################
# RECONSTRUCTED
# 2026 REBUILT FROM WALK-FORWARD OUTPUT. NOT a live record: these
# picks were never published, the model was re-run afterwards on a
# different fold, and the pipeline was designed with these results
# already visible. An upper bound, never evidence.
# The live record lives in data/live/published_picks.csv and is shown on the card.
####################################################################################################
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MONEYLINE — VALIDATED, but the claim has weakened. Re-measured on
8,650 games: HIGH 60.01% / MEDIUM 56.93% / LOW 51.97%.
Ordering holds; HIGH and MEDIUM intervals now OVERLAP
([57.60%,62.43%] vs [55.05%,58.81%]), where the earlier
6,367-game window showed none. MEDIUM > LOW is clean.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
hit rate by band, with 95% CI, stated vs actual, and units.
n = all graded games (hit rate, calibration).
n_priced = the subset with a real price (units, ROI). The 2026
archive backfill priced 2,299 of the 2,301 games that had none,
so n_priced now nearly equals n; the two games still missing
start before the snapshot that was bought.
group n hit_rate ci_lo ci_hi ci_width stated stated_minus_actual units roi n_priced
HIGH 267 52.8% 46.8% 58.7% 11.9% 61.5% +8.7 pts -33.42 -12.5% 267
MEDIUM 494 59.3% 54.9% 63.6% 8.6% 58.4% -1.0 pts 15.38 3.1% 491
LOW 684 47.4% 43.7% 51.1% 7.5% 53.3% +5.9 pts -81.30 -11.9% 684
HIGH: ! n=267 — interval is wide; treat as provisional
calibration by probability bucket:
bucket n stated actual gap ci_lo ci_hi
14.7%-46.0% 181 41.3% 48.6% -7.3 pts 41.4% 55.9%
46.0%-49.7% 180 48.0% 51.7% -3.6 pts 44.4% 58.9%
49.7%-52.1% 181 51.0% 43.6% +7.4 pts 36.6% 50.9%
52.1%-54.3% 180 53.2% 47.2% +6.0 pts 40.1% 54.5%
54.3%-56.2% 181 55.3% 48.6% +6.6 pts 41.4% 55.9%
56.3%-58.5% 180 57.3% 57.8% -0.5 pts 50.5% 64.8%
58.6%-61.6% 181 60.0% 56.9% +3.1 pts 49.6% 63.9%
61.6%-77.3% 181 64.7% 63.0% +1.7 pts 55.7% 69.7%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTALS* — BANDS WERE TESTED AND FAILED.
HIGH hit 52.23%, 95% CI [49.72%, 54.73%] — an interval that
CONTAINS 50% and overlaps LOW. Incremental R^2 over the
posted line is +0.0022. weak/mid/strong below is CLAIM
STRENGTH ONLY, not a validated band.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
group n hit_rate ci_lo ci_hi ci_width stated stated_minus_actual units roi n_priced
strong 459 48.6% 44.0% 53.1% 9.1% 61.5% +12.9 pts -36.18 -7.9% 459
mid 459 52.9% 48.4% 57.5% 9.1% 55.0% +2.1 pts 1.35 0.3% 457
weak 459 51.6% 47.1% 56.2% 9.1% 51.6% -0.0 pts -6.61 -1.4% 459
calibration by probability bucket:
bucket n stated actual gap ci_lo ci_hi
8.3%-39.5% 172 34.4% 52.3% -17.9 pts 44.9% 59.7%
39.5%-42.2% 172 40.9% 51.7% -10.8 pts 44.3% 59.1%
42.2%-44.6% 172 43.5% 45.3% -1.8 pts 38.1% 52.8%
44.6%-46.6% 172 45.6% 51.2% -5.5 pts 43.7% 58.5%
46.7%-48.8% 172 47.7% 50.0% -2.3 pts 42.6% 57.4%
48.8%-51.3% 172 50.1% 50.6% -0.5 pts 43.2% 58.0%
51.3%-54.1% 172 52.6% 51.7% +0.9 pts 44.3% 59.1%
54.1%-67.7% 173 57.4% 52.6% +4.8 pts 45.2% 59.9%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NRFI* — UNGRADED. No historical price is HELD for this market, so
break-even, units and market comparison are UNCOMPUTABLE,
not merely absent. Hit rate only.
(A season of history is purchasable at ~17,210 credits and
has not been bought. The LIVE market is obtainable:
DraftKings quoted the 0.5 line on 3 of the 3 events
carrying it on 2026-08-13, under the market key
alternate_totals_1st_1_innings.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
group n hit_rate ci_lo ci_hi ci_width stated stated_minus_actual
strong 482 55.2% 50.7% 59.6% 8.8% 59.1% +3.9 pts
mid 481 53.0% 48.5% 57.4% 8.9% 54.0% +1.0 pts
weak 482 51.2% 46.8% 55.7% 8.9% 51.2% -0.1 pts
====================================================================================================
READING THESE NUMBERS
====================================================================================================
Every hit rate above carries a 95% interval. A rate whose interval
contains the relevant break-even (or 0.50) has not demonstrated
anything, however good the point estimate looks.
At ~140 live picks by season end the interval is about +/- 8 points,
which is wider than any edge worth having. Live conclusions should
not be drawn this season.